El Niño’s effects on Ocean Surface and the world economy
What is El Niño?
The term El Niño means small boy in Spanish. However, it refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Further, this climate change typically peaks in December.
Effects of El Niño on Ocean surface
The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual.
According to the National Ocean Service, while in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
Effects of El Niño on Marine Life
Moreover, El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast.
In normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface. This depth water is cold and nutrient rich.
However, during El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Further, the water from the depths is nutrient-free and contains fewer phytoplanktons off the coast.
Additionally, this affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. Also, the warmer waters can bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.
How bad could things get?
El Niño is all set to return again. Moreover, the warmer weather changes it will bring to ocean surface are expected to do a lot of damage this year. Additionally, according to new research that suggests the global economy will take a big hit.
General havoc worldwide
According to National Geographic, El Niño can cause flooding, droughts, and many other severe weather conditions that can generate typhoons in Australia and hurricanes in the United States.
Wreaking havoc on the economy
Regarding this context in mind, it’s easy to see how a warming weather system could be set to wreak havoc on the world economy this year.
In a study published in the journal Science, researchers calculated that the next El Niño might cost the global economy $3 trillion dollars compared to a scenario where the world wasn’t facing the climate pattern the Verge noted.
Climate change and El Niño
Indeed, the journal focused on understanding how climate variability affected El Niño’s economic impacts in past cycles. Also, it showed that the damage dealt greatly to the affected countries.
Previous Economy Losses
The study’s authors wrote that they were able to attribute $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in global economic losses to the El Niño events in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Moreover, they noted that El Niño’s economic effects weren’t just a one-time factor that hurt an economy. The climate pattern often results in major growth declines in countries.
Economies continue to suffer
Study co-author, Christopher Callahan quoted, “We can say with certainty that societies and economies absolutely do not just take a hit and recover.”
He further added, “In the tropics and places that experience the effects of El Niño, you get a persistent signature during which growth is delayed for at least five years.”
True Cost not Known
The Dartmouth PhD student went on to say the total price of El Niño events has never been truly calculated. Further, he noted that researchers need to factor the depressed economic growth that occurs in the aftermath of the climate pattern in order to understand the cost.
This means that while we are focussing on this years $3 trillion damage, the after effects can also raise the bar.
The deck is stacked
“The deck is potentially stacked for a really big El Niño,” Callahan said, adding that the countries in the tropics may see a decade of depressed growth. The “results could be trillions of dollars in productivity lost globally relative to a world without this El Niño.”
